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Campaigns Adjust Their Pace to Meet Short
Season
NYTIMES
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: September 9, 2008
DAYTON, Ohio — Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are confronting a
sharply abbreviated general election campaign season, the product of
the late nominating conventions and a boom in early voting in tightly
contested states. This shortened timetable is forcing both campaigns to
recalibrate the pace of television advertisements, accelerate voter
turnout operations and tailor the candidates’ traveling schedules to
accommodate states where voting is imminent.
While it is just eight weeks until Election Day, even that schedule
overstates how much time the presidential nominees have to win over
voters. More than 30 states allow some form of early voting, forcing
the campaigns to deal with a rolling series of Election Days. Iowa, a
crucial state, will begin voting on Sept. 23, less than three weeks
after the end of the Republican convention marked the traditional start
of the general election sprint.
“I think it’s unprecedented, a whole new way of looking at elections,”
said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who is not involved with
either campaign. “A combination of the late conventions and the way
early voting is becoming even earlier around the country is going to
have a big, big impact.”
Aides to Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Mr. Obama, Democrat of
Illinois, are devising state-by-state advertising strategies so that
their close-the-deal messages — typically kept in reserve until the
last 10 days before Election Day — are released to coincide with when
people are reaching their final decisions. The old advertising formula
was to begin after Labor Day with soft biographical advertisements
introducing the candidate, followed by commercials drawing sharp
contrasts with the other side, and closing with the strongest argument.
But that formula is obsolete, aides to both candidates said.
The traveling schedules of the candidates, spouses and running mates
are being adjusted so they front-load the time spent in states where,
practically speaking, there is not much time before people begin to
vote. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain were in Ohio on Tuesday,
on-the-ground evidence of the fact that this state will for the first
time permit early voting in presidential elections. Voting starts Sept.
30.
Turnout operations that once would not have kicked into high-gear until
the weekend before Election Day are about to be revved up and will
remain in operation to accommodate the elongated period of early
voting, posing new expenses and complications. The campaigns are using
computer models — studying past voting trends along with consumer and
demographic data — to try to identify people most likely to be early
voters, and press them to vote.
“We are now less than 30 days from people voting,” said Steve
Hildebrand, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “Easily one-third of the
people are going to vote before Election Day.”
Given the truncated general election season, campaign aides said they
were going to have make triage decisions sooner about what states the
nominees are actually going to compete in. The ambitious battleground
presented by Mr. Obama’s aides, of at least 18 states, may soon get
whittled down in deference to a calendar that does not leave that many
days for campaigning. With deceptively little time left, it is now
unlikely that Mr. McCain will go to, say, New Jersey, or that Mr. Obama
will visit Georgia, early wish-list states for the two candidates.
And given the time constraints, complicated by the fact that the three
presidential debates are going to eat up campaign time in the weeks
ahead, there is less time for a candidate to recover from a mistake or
catch up should either Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain experience a major
breakthrough at one of those debates.
“It fundamentally changes two things: timing and budgets,” said Mike
DuHaime, the political director for Mr. McCain. “You need to close the
deal earlier for some voters, and Election Day can be spread out over
weeks. That means your get-out-the-vote costs are more than ever.”
David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, said: “This is an
enormously compressed time frame — this thing is really getting down to
the wire. You can’t look at this like there’s 57 days until Election
Day. We start having Election Day right around the corner.”
The shortened campaign season means that both campaigns have more money
to spend on a per-week or per-day basis; thus, the $84 million that Mr.
McCain is receiving in his federal campaign subsidy will go a lot
farther in a 60-day campaign than it would have gone in, say, 2000 when
the general election campaign lasted 81 days.
With the exception of one campaign, 2004, this 60-day general election
campaign is the shortest since the new Republican Party held its
convention in 1856. This year, unlike in 2004, the two parties held
their conventions in consecutive weeks toward the end of the summer,
making the general election that much more concentrated for both of
them. Early voting is a relatively new phenomenon in American politics,
and its influence varies widely by region. But significantly, Southwest
states that have emerged as McCain-Obama battlegrounds this year —
Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico — are hotbeds of early voting, as is
Florida, where one million people have already requested a ballot. But
early voting is far less prevalent in contested Eastern states like New
Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Paul Gronke, the director of the Early Voting Information Center at
Reed College in Oregon, said he expected 33 percent of the votes in
this presidential election to be cast early, a sharp increase from the
20 percent of the 2004 election. In the 2006 midterm elections, 25
percent of the votes were cast early.
“The numbers have accelerated as the campaigns have learned about
this,” Mr. Gronke said. But, he said, this remains to some extent new
territory, and he can see circumstances where early voting may not
reach the levels expected.
“If the race is very competitive,” he said, “citizens may hold their
ballots.”
Early evidence of how campaigns are adjusting to this new calendar can
be seen in spending patterns on television advertising. Evan Tracey,
the president of Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that monitors
political advertising, said his group had charted a big surge in
spending in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico in recent days. Those
are all states viewed as big early-voting targets.
In addition, Mr. Tracey said, Mr. McCain went on the air on Sept. 1 in
Florida, another state where early voting is viewed as crucial, after
weeks in which he let Mr. Obama have the field to himself there.
Supreme Court
Upholds Photo ID Voting Law
NYTIMES
By REUTERS
Published: April 28, 2008
Filed at 5:04 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Supreme Court on Monday upheld a tough state
law requiring voters to show photo identification, a decision critics
say could keep some blacks, poor people and other traditional
Democratic supporters from voting in the November election.
Resolving a partisan political battle, the country's high court voted
6-3 to reject a legal challenge by Democrats that Indiana's
toughest-in-the-nation voter identification law would deter minorities,
the elderly and others from casting ballots.
The main opinion agreed with Republican supporters that the law was
necessary to prevent voter fraud and safeguard public confidence in the
integrity of elections. The Bush administration supported the law.
The court handed down the ruling just eight days before the crucial
Indiana presidential primary election featuring Democratic candidates
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. If elected in November, Obama would
be the first black U.S. president, while Clinton would be the first
female U.S. president.
"The effect of the loss ... will begin to be felt next week when
Indiana holds its presidential primary using the voter ID law the court
has just upheld," said Nathaniel Persily, an election law expert at
Columbia University in New York.
The decision could have broad national significance because more than
20 states have adopted voter identification laws and other states are
considering similar legislation.
The law requires a government-issued photo ID such as a driver's
license to vote in federal, state and local elections.
Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita, a Republican, said the timing
of the ruling was good because it was the first time since 1968 that
Indiana's presidential primary had mattered and voter registrations had
surged this year.
In seven elections since Indiana put the law into place, the
requirement "hasn't been an issue," based on complaints to his office,
Rokita said.
Reaction to the ruling split along political lines.
"This decision not only confirms the validity of photo ID laws but it
completely vindicates the Bush Justice Department" when it approved a
similar Georgia law, said former department official Hans von Spakovsky.
Democrats sharply criticized the ruling.
DENIES A FUNDAMENTAL RIGHT
"Denying a fundamental right -- the right to vote -- because a person
is indigent, lacks a birth certificate or has no access to a vehicle
goes against America's better values," Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont
said.
Angela Ciccolo of the NAACP civil rights group said the law would have
its greatest impact on voters who are poor, elderly, belong to racial
minorities or have disabilities.
The lead opinion, written by Justice John Paul Stevens and joined by
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy, held the
evidence in the record did not support an attack now on the law's
validity.
Three other court members -- conservative Justices Antonin Scalia,
Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, concurred in the judgment and issued
a separate opinion that the law should be upheld because its overall
burden was minimal and justified.
Stevens wrote that states had a "valid interest in protecting the
integrity and reliability of the electoral process." He said voter
fraud "could affect the outcome of a close election."
He said the law may place a small burden on a limited number of people
-- the elderly born out-of-state who may have difficulty in getting the
required documents, the homeless or people with a religious objection
to being photographed.
Stevens said politics may have been a factor in adopting the law but
that alone did not make it unconstitutional. His opinion left open the
possibility of future legal challenges by specific voters.
Justices David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer
dissented. Souter said the law threatened to impose major burdens on
the voting rights of tens of thousands of Indiana residents, especially
the poor and the elderly.
Supreme Court to
Hear Voter ID Case
By
MARK SHERMAN | Associated Press Writer
10:47 AM EDT,
September 25, 2007
WASHINGTON -
The Supreme Court agreed Tuesday to decide whether voter identification
laws unfairly deter the poor and minorities from voting, stepping into
a contentious partisan issue in advance of the 2008 elections.
The justices
will hear arguments early next year in a challenge to an Indiana law
that requires voters to present photo ID before casting their ballots.
The state has defended the law as a way to combat voter fraud.
The state
Democratic party and civil rights groups complained that the law
unfairly targets poor and minority voters, without any evidence that
in-person voter fraud exists in Indiana. The party argued that those
voters tend to be Democrats.
Courts have
upheld voter ID laws in Arizona and Michigan, but struck down
Missouri's. Earlier this month, a federal judge dismissed a challenge
to Georgia's voter identification law, saying the statute does not
impose a significant burden on the right to vote.
Election law
experts had urged the court to take the Indiana case to instruct courts
on how to weigh claims of voter fraud versus those of
disenfranchisement. "The court better resolve this question before
ballots start getting counted next fall," said Stanford University law
professor Pamela Karlan.
The court is
expected to issue a decision by late June, in time for the November
general election.
The Indiana law
enacted in 2005 was upheld by a federal judge and by the 7th U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago. Before the law's passage, an
Indiana voter had only to sign a poll book at the polling place, where
a photo copy of the voter's signature was kept on file for comparison.
"The purpose of
the Indiana law is to reduce voting fraud, and voting fraud impairs the
right of legitimate voters to vote by diluting their votes," Judge
Richard Posner said in his majority opinion.
But in a
dissent, Judge Terence Evans said, "Let's not beat around the bush. The
Indiana voter photo ID law is a not-too-thinly veiled attempt to
discourage election-day turnout by folks believed to skew Democratic."
The voter ID
challenge was among 17 new cases accepted by the court in advance of
the start of its new term on Monday.
The cases are
Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, 07-21, and Indiana Democratic
Party v. Rokita, 07-25.
Mail-In Voters Become the Latest Prize
NYTIMES
By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD
Published: January 14, 2008
LOS ANGELES — The first Tuesday in February, when 22 states hold
primaries, may turn out to be the biggest day of the presidential
campaign. But for many voters, half or more in some states, the polling
place will be the kitchen table, the ballot box will be the mailbox and
the choice in many cases will be made weeks before a voting machine
lever is pulled.
In California, the biggest prize on Feb. 5, state election officials
estimate that more than half of voters may vote by mail, which has
forced campaigns to adjust their strategies and has some political
observers worried that people may make hasty choices they may later
regret.
Mail ballots went out last week, and some campaigns have been stepping
up efforts to reach voters before they open the mailbox.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, campaigned here
last Friday with a policy-heavy speech intended in part to attract such
voters, her aides said, and then spent time with campaign workers in
San Diego calling potential early voters.
Campaign workers for Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, made
300,000 calls to potential voters in the last week and the candidate is
expected to make a two-day visit to California this week.
“We believe we are in a good position to capture early voters because a
large slice of absentees are independent or ‘decline to state’ voters,”
said Debbie Mesloh, a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in California,
noting that surveys of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire suggested that
Mr. Obama had done well with such unaffiliated voters.
The campaign of former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, a
Republican, has long focused on states like California, New York and
Florida, which have large numbers of delegates and allow early voting.
His being well known coupled with workers who are calling voters to
help explain voting-by-mail procedures could give him a boost, aides
said.
“We talk to voters about the legal procedure and the way to vote by
mail,” said Jarrod Agen, a spokesman for the Giuliani campaign in
California. Mr. Giuliani, he said, has made 12 visits and spent 31 days
in the state in the past year, he said.
Officials in Florida, where the primary is Jan. 29, report an increase
in requests for absentee ballots, attributing it largely to the
closeness of the races in both parties. About 42 percent of Democrats
and 47 percent of Republicans in the state have requested absentee
ballots.
Officials in New Jersey, which moved its primary to Feb. 5 from March,
anticipate large numbers of mail-in voters if only because of the
potential for bad weather. “There’s never been a primary in New Jersey
in the winter before,” said David Wald, a spokesman for Attorney
General Anne Milgram, whose office directs elections in the state.
Nationwide, 31 states allow some form of early voting with “no excuse
required,” and analysts say interest in voting by mail has increased
mainly because it is more convenient than going to, and sometimes
waiting in line, at a polling place. Several states in the last decade
have changed their laws to allow all voters to cast ballots by mail for
any reason, as opposed to limiting it to the infirm or those who will
be out of town. (New York, whose primary is Feb. 5, requires voters to
state a reason when they apply for an absentee ballot, leading
political professionals to speculate that such voting by mail will not
be as large a factor there as in other states.).
Early voting adds another layer of complication to the already
frenetic, far-flung campaign. Well-financed campaigns are in better
position to take advantage of this dynamic by having more to spend on
phone banks, mailings and other tactics to specifically target these
voters.
It makes for an “extensive, grueling and expensive get-out-the-vote
operation,” said Paul Gronke, a political science professor at Reed
College in Portland, Ore., who is an expert on early voting. Mr. Gronke
said surveys had shown that voters who use absentee ballots tend to be
older, more affluent, better educated and more partisan.
Advocates for mail-in voting say it fits modern lifestyles.
“I think it is a reflection of people’s busy lives and the
complications of child care, weather and traffic as well as the
complexity of our ballots,” said Debra Bowen, California’s secretary of
state, and a supporter of voting by mail. “Very often, there will be 10
or 15 initiatives that are so complicated, so people will sit at the
kitchen table and if they get stuck on something, they can step away or
they can call somebody.”
But some people in politics are troubled by the trend. They say it
increases the pressure on candidates to raise money to support early
get-out-the-vote efforts. They also say that votes could be wasted on a
candidate who drops out after voters mailed in their ballots before
primary day.
“Quite frankly, I think they should do away with early voting except
for people who are bed-ridden or out of the state,” said Randy Pullen,
chairman of the Republican Party in Arizona, where 48 percent of the
ballots cast in the last statewide election, in 2006, were mailed.
Balloting there began Jan. 10 for the Feb. 5 primary.
“During the 30-day cycle, when you can pick up a ballot and vote, a lot
of things can happen,” he said. “Thirty days is a lifetime in an
election cycle. People regret their vote and wish they could change it.
Look at New Hampshire. The way you might have voted two days before
Hillary had her emotional display might have been different than the
way you’d have voted after.”